Mandel’s Mailbag: Would Florida State and Clemson consider the Big 12 after an ACC exit? (2024)

I’d like to begin with a quick tribute to Jeff Tedford, who, for the second time, stepped down as Fresno State’s head coach this week. I’m not sure most fans realize all that the 62-year-old accomplished in his career.

He’s most known as the guy who coached Aaron Rodgers, Marshawn Lynch and DeSean Jackson at Cal, where he notched two 10-win seasons. The Bears have not come close to that mark since. Then at Fresno, he won two conference titles over two different stints (2018 and 2022).

Here’s hoping the College Football Hall of Fame takes notice. Mostly, though, here’s hoping for his good health.

Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length.

Hey Stewart: With the Big Ten and SEC both stating they have no interest in adding any more teams, where does that leave Florida State and Clemson, considering the current “scorched earth” approach they have taken towards the ACC? Would they even be interested in joining the Big 12? — Conor O., Houston

That’s the million dollar — er, $130 million dollar — question these days.

Before anything else can happen, FSU and Clemson have to resolve their lawsuits with the ACC. That could take years, if they go to trial, or months, if the sides reach a settlement.

Meanwhile, an important date is looming for the entire ACC: February 2025. That’s when ESPN has a “look-in” to decide whether it wants to continue with its ACC contract for another 10 years (2027-2036). Were things completely stable, it would be a no-brainer for the network to keep things as is, given the locked-in price, especially with the revenue it makes from the ACC Network. But if the network opts out … chaos in the streets.

In terms of the Big Ten and SEC — of course, they’re going to say, as commissioner Greg Sankey did at SEC media days this week, “Our focus is on our 16 members.” Expect something similar from the Big Ten’s Tony Petitti next week. Their focus is not on realignment, because there’s no one of value that’s realistically available. That could change in an instant if the ACC implodes.

The Big Ten in particular will likely do whatever Fox tells it to do, and it may well covet a powerhouse program that gets it into a hugely populous state. That seems a more viable option than the SEC, which already has schools in Florida and South Carolina and whose partner, ESPN, has no incentive to pay more money to show Florida State and Clemson than it does now.

The Big 12 presents an interesting, if less plausible, alternative. On the one hand, that conference makes no more than the ACC does now, so, what’s the point, right? But if Brett Yormark gets his wish and gets his presidents to sign off on a private equity deal, it may be able to pay Florida State and Clemson a lot more than they make now, even before negotiating a new TV deal. In that scenario, those schools might be able to make Big Ten/SEC money without having to play a Big Ten/SEC schedule.

I just find it hard to imagine those schools want to join a less-glamorous conference. Perhaps they could use an invite as leverage to gain more favorable terms from the ACC.

Stew: Texas, Oregon, and Utah are all new members of their respective conferences and all have good odds to make the Playoff via winning their new conference, or at least getting an at-large bid. Which conference newcomer are you buying, selling, and holding to make the Playoff this year? —Nicholas R., Sioux Falls, S.D.

The easiest call here is to sell Utah. Don’t get me wrong, I’m high on the Utes. They bring back one of the most accomplished quarterbacks in the country in Cam Rising, an upgraded offense with the return of three-time All-Pac-12 tight end Brant Kuithe and the addition of USC wide receiver Dorian Singer, and a tough, veteran defense.

But the Big 12 may get only one or two teams in, and I don’t see much separating the Utes from other contenders like Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Arizona and Kansas. It’s possible Utah could be very good and still finish third. It’s even possible the Utes could go 10-2 and be left out, if the Big Ten and SEC produce a bunch of at-large teams.

I’ll buy Oregon. The Ducks would have easily been a 12-team playoff entrant last year, when their only blemishes were a pair of three-point losses to national runner-up Washington. I don’t take for granted how important Bo Nix was to their success or assume Dillon Gabriel will seamlessly replace him, but Dan Lanning has filled that two-deep with so many high-end transfers. Ohio State may be the only team in the Big Ten with as much or more talent.

And I’ll hold Texas. For reasons explained below.

I disagree but understand the logic of being low on Oklahoma long term in the SEC. I don’t understand being low on Oklahoma but high on Texas. Going into the SEC, they will have similar rosters and similar recruiting classes. Is it just the fact one went 11-1 last year instead of 10-2? — Alexander L.

I wouldn’t call it “similar rosters,” at least the past couple of years. Texas’ 2022 and ’23 teams produced six first- and second-round draft picks and 16 overall picks. Oklahoma: three first- and second-rounders and eight overall picks. Exactly half in both departments. In recruiting, Steve Sarkisian has signed three straight top-five classes, per 247Sports. Brent Venables’ three classes so far have ranked Nos. 10, 6 and 12. And in this year’s portal cycle, Texas ranked No. 6, Oklahoma No. 20.

But there’s still a valid point to be made that people may be overreacting to the Horns’ first big season in 14 years. Sark is just two years removed from finishing 8-5 with Bijan Robinson as his centerpiece. Last year’s team definitely took a huge step up, beating one Playoff team, Alabama, and taking another, Washington, to the final play in their semifinal meeting. But that doesn’t guarantee they’ll get back to that level, especially going into a new conference.

I wouldn’t put it past Oklahoma to surprise folks this year. Expectations are noticeably tempered for a blue-blood program coming off a 10-win season. But two differences I’d note between the programs: 1) Texas knows what it has in third-year quarterback Quinn Ewers. New OU starter Jackson Arnold came in with Ewers-like hype but still needs to prove it.

And 2) Texas showed last season it can field an SEC-caliber defensive line. Sark has loaded up on big, athletic dudes that can get to the passer. Oklahoma, even when it was going to all those Playoffs, has been seen as more finesse. The Sooners have not had a defensive lineman selected higher than the third round since 2015. That’s definitely contributing to the skepticism of the Sooners being able to hang in the SEC right from the jump.

Mind you, I would have been writing none of this as recently as two years ago. Oklahoma was by far the better program from 2010-2021. The onus is on Venables to swing momentum back in the Sooners’ direction given their rival’s rise.

In today’s world of crazy-fast coach turnover, how patient do you think Alabama will be with Kalen DeBoer, and how would you define patient for a place like Alabama? Championship or gone by three years’ time? Something else? — Chuck R.

Patience is not a thing in the SEC. LSU fired Ed Orgeron less than two years after producing one of the greatest seasons in the history of the sport. Dan Mullen led Florida to New Year’s Six bowls each of his first three seasons, then didn’t make it through the fourth one. Mississippi State’s Zach Arnett took over unexpectedly for a legend, Mike Leach, under the worst possible circ*mstances, and was gone within a year.

Best of luck, coach DeBoer.

In all seriousness, much will depend on this first season. He needs to start strong. I’ve seen it many times before, where a coach gets off to a bad first impression and spends the rest of his tenure perpetually on the hot seat. DeBoer is off to a highly encouraging start in recruiting, landing commitments from two five-stars the past week to lift Alabama to No. 2 in the 2025 rankings. But that goodwill could go quickly out the window if the Tide go 8-4 in his first season. He needs to at least win 10 games and make the Playoff.

That will be his honeymoon phase. Starting in year two, Bama fans will expect him to be Nick Saban. Which is of course impossible. Athletic director Greg Byrne knows that, and he’s not going to do anything rash. Nor do I don’t think it’s “national championship or bust” within three years.

But the Tide need to be in regular contention. DeBoer needs to inspire enough confidence that one down year doesn’t derail the program. That’s pretty much true of the entire upper half of the SEC, but especially at a school that’s set the standard for the rest of the conference for the past 16 years.

Is The Athletic pushing EA Sports College Football 25 content so hard because the click rate on those stories is awesome, or is this just the offseason and news is slow? — Dan M., Washington, D.C.

People are really interested in the game, Dan. Chris Vannini’s review published Monday is already our most-read college football story in more than three months.

Eleven years of pent-up demand will do that.

Hi Stewart, with the bigger Playoff marking a new day in college football, what broadcasters, from any era, would you love to hear calling the games? — Regis B.

Great question. I’m limiting it to guys I’ve seen call games. Lindsey Nelson, Chris Schenkel and Bill Flemming, among others, were before my time.

Peak Keith Jackson is my absolute no-brainer pick for the No. 1 broadcast team. I want him calling a game in all four rounds. I’d pair him with his old partner, Dan Fouts.

Brent Musburger gets the No. 2 gig, meaning he’ll call everything but the championship game. Reunite him with longtime partner Kirk Herbstreit.

Surely, we’d want Verne Lundquist on one of the broadcast teams, preferably starting with a first-round game at an SEC stadium. I know he didn’t call games, but, I want Beano Cook involved in some way, so he’s the analyst on this one.

Finally, among current voices, I’m partial to Gus Johnson, who would surely bring his March Madness magic to postseason football. We’d keep him paired with Joel Klatt.

Could you see a scenario this year where the Group of 5 champion gets the No. 4 seed? After listening to “The Audible” last week, it seems like the Big 12/16 champion could realistically have a 10-3 record. Would a 13-0 Memphis/Tulane/Boise State steal the No. 4 seed (and a bye) if that happened? — Tom N., Chicago

In 10 years of the four-team CFP, the only time a G5 team finished as the fourth-highest ranked conference champion was Cincinnati in 2021. The Bearcats were in fact third-highest. Keep in mind, just to finish No. 4 in the final rankings, behind Alabama, Michigan and Georgia, took the Bearcats going 13-0 in the regular season two years in a row; being the only undefeated team in the country; beating a Notre Dame team that happened to finish No. 5; and 11-1 Oklahoma State getting stopped inches short of the end zone in the Big 12 Championship Game.

In other words, a perfect storm.

And all that’s happened since then is that four of the nation’s best G5 programs (Cincinnati, UCF, Houston and SMU) moved up, and all the conferences got rid of their divisions, reducing the chances of them having a low-ranked champion. I don’t agree with colleague Bruce Feldman that the Big 12 champion will have three losses. I don’t know that it’s possible in a 16-team league where the teams will inevitably play unbalanced schedules. Someone is going to be good enough to win 11 games and have the schedule to do it.

But let’s pretend that happens. The Big 12 champ is 10-3. Those three G5 teams Tom mentioned all have one thing going for them: a potential big nonconference win like Cincinnati had in 2021. Boise State plays at Oregon (Sept. 7), Memphis plays at Florida State (Sept. 14) and Tulane visits Oklahoma (Sept. 14). Any of those would be eye-openers, especially if the team they beat goes on to be a top-10 team. If so, yes, I could see one of those teams at 13-0 finishing higher than a 10-3 Big 12 champ.

There’s even a Cincinnati-Notre Dame repeat scenario in play. A week before its date with the Sooners, Tulane hosts Kansas State. If the Green Wave win, and then the Wildcats turn around and win the Big 12 … there you have it.

Five years from now, assuming Kenny Dillingham is still Arizona State’s head coach, are the Sun Devils still being projected to finish last in the Big 12? — John R.

If the Sun Devils are being picked last five years from now, Kenny Dillingham will not still be their coach.

What is a realistic roster size without walk-ons? Based on a small sample of NFL teams last year, it looks like using 65 to 75 players is typical for a season. However, an NFL team only has to sign players at position groups where they actually experience a lot of injuries. They don’t have to carry two punters and two kickers.Is 85 players enough at the college level? — Rob, Atlanta

Rob is referring to the ongoing discussions related to the proposed House v. NCAA settlement, which might do away with scholarship limits but institute lower roster caps.

I get why people make the comparison, but NFL rosters are made up of 53 NFL-ready players and 16 practice-squad guys fully qualified to step in at a moment’s notice. Colleges recruit guys out of high school, many of whom simply aren’t ready to take game snaps as freshmen, or in some cases even a couple of years after that.

But these coaches who insist they absolutely have to have 120 guys on their rosters? C’mon. That’s just the way they’ve always done it, so they don’t want it to change. You’re allowed to play only 70 in a game. You really need 50 more above that?

The answer is probably somewhere in the middle. Maybe 90? A little higher? Mind you, I’d rather not take away opportunities for anyone. Why not just leave it as is? It’s yet another instance of schools trying to manage expenses by outlawing something they were never required to spend the money on in the first place.

Which of these three new coaches hits a 10-win season first: South Alabama’s Major Applewhite, San Jose State’s Ken Niumatalolo or Wyoming’s Jay Sawvel? — Jim S., Palo Alto, Calif.

Jim has been submitting this incredibly specific question repeatedly for months, so, I feel compelled to answer, even though I fear most of you are already skimming to the next section.

It’s become nearly impossible to forecast Group of 5 teams’ success because of the extreme roster volatility. Applewhite, the former Houston coach, was already South Alabama’s offensive coordinator the past three seasons under Kane Wommack, when the Jaguars won 10 games in 2022 and clobbered Oklahoma State last season. That would seemingly give him a head start.

Except that South Alabama lost its starting quarterback, top running back, top receiver and most of its defense. Also, Applewhite didn’t exactly inspire confidence with his short-lived Houston tenure.

I have a ton of respect for what Niumatalolo accomplished at Navy for all those years, but it’s impossible to predict what kind of coach he will be no longer running the triple-option. Also, several of San Jose State’s top players followed Brent Brennan to Arizona.

I’m going with Wyoming’s Sawvel, who succeeds the retired Craig Bohl after four seasons as his DC. The Cowboys were right on the cusp of 10 wins last season, finishing 9-4. After beating Texas Tech in last year’s opener, they could do the same against any or all of Arizona State, BYU and Washington State this season. And with two-thirds of the Mountain West trotting out new head coaches this season, the door is open for a new contender in that conference.

That’s all I’ve got. Feel free to come back with a different random trio of G5 coaches next week.

Stewart: In your opinion, what is the purpose or value proposition for America’s colleges and universities to engage in intercollegiate athletics? There are around 2,000 schools that engage in this activity, with around 850 having football programs. Few outside the 68 in the four FBS power conferences are making significant revenue, so, again, why do it? — David T., Hoover, Ala.

Community, school pride, alumni engagement, donor loyalty, brand marketing and student recruitment, to name a few factors.

Also: Sports are fun.

(Photo of Clemson coach Dabo Swinney: John Byrum / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)