July 2024 Nagoya Basho Ozeki + Yokozuna Preview (2024)

Another Basho, and one fewer Ozeki later we look to see who after the 2024 edition of the Nagoya Basho might leave Aichi Prefectural Gymnasium as a Yokozuna or Ozeki. To give some spoilers, Terunofuji has little to worry about remaining the sole Yokozuna, but our current trio of Ozeki might see their numbers grow and reverse the loss suffered in Natsu back in May.

Yokozuna Preview

As we have established previously, the magic number for a Yokozuna promotion from Ozeki is 26 wins over 2 tournaments. Even still it’s no guarantee as typically 2 “Yusho Equivalents” are required which we’ve also investigated. With those two prerequisites in mind, there actually is a bit of a slim chance or golden route available to Kotozakura making Yokozuna.

Ozeki 1 East Kotozakura, Natsu ‘24: 11-4, Jun-Yusho

Fun fact: if Kotozakura won the Nagoya Basho, it would be his first Yusho since his sumo debut in Jonokuchi in 2016. Unlikely possibility: if he had a Zensho Yusho, going 15-0 and winning the Yusho, then he would have 26 wins over these 2 tournaments. For one, I doubt he will do that. Secondly, even if he did do that, I don’t think it’s by any means guaranteed he’d be promoted. He’s still relatively young, and they might want to see something stronger than 11-4 in a Yokozuna run (albeit with a Jun-Yusho). It’s likely a moot point, but just wanted to let you all know it is technically on the table. Perhaps they’d be a little more lenient if it offered a Yokozuna we could expect to appear more frequently than Terunofuji or latter days Kakuryu and Hakuho.

Ozeki Preview

Here we have a much more robust slate of potential promotees, starting with recently demoted Kirishima. In sumo, after demotion from Ozeki, if the following tournament you have 10 (or more) wins you receive your Ozeki rank back. Beyond that, we have an interesting slate of Rikishi to look at including a name or two that might surprise you (the top man is on a sneaky run). Just remember, the magic number for Ozeki is 33 usually and furthermore with 3 Ozeki and potentially Kirishima returning, I believe they’ll be a little stricter following those “standards”1.

Sekiwake 1 East, Abi: Natsu 10-5, Haru 9-6

With 19 wins in the past two tournaments, 14 wins puts him at 33 wins over three tournaments. I don’t see that in his future, but on the other hand if he got 13 and won the Yusho, suddenly the question gets a little tougher. I imagine they’d keep him at Sekiwake and he’d just need to win 10 the next time around for it. Still, with 10 wins in the bank, if he gets another 10 (or ideally more here) he’d be in a terrific position for Aki. Ever since he returned from the Covid suspension, Abi has looked like he might be a little better than before he left and has another gear. His brand of sumo can be quite polarizing, but at least for me, I think it’d form a nice little narrative. He’s one to tune into matches for everyday.

Sekiwake 1 West, Onosato: Natsu 12-3 Yusho from K1W, Haru 11-4 Jun Yusho from M5W

Onosato is a hard one for me, and I imagine he’ll give the Sumo Association fits if he continues performing like he has (and there’s no reason to believe he’ll slow down). Why? Well he’s already at 23 wins over the past two tournaments. A mere 10 in Nagoya and he’ll hit the magic 33 wins in three tournaments mark with a Yusho + Jun Yusho guaranteed. Unless he’s nursing an injury we can likely expect more than 10 wins.

So why the pause? Well, looking through past Ozeki runs, I believe the lowest successful one I could find was from Tochinoshin at Maegashira 3. I don’t want to be overly reductionist, but I do think the sumo world can often be quite conservative (with regards to norms) and so would they be willing to lower the precedent for successful Ozeki runs? I think we’re in uncharted territory here but you read me for my combination of numbers and analysis so why not make a prediction: if he gets a Yusho and/or 12 or more wins, they’ll promote him. If not, I think they’ll confirm he’s on an Ozeki run.

Bottom line: we’re seeing him push the boundaries of history and I can’t look away.

Sekiwake 2 East, Kirishima

This is a pretty simple entry: if he gets 10 wins then he is Ozeki again. But you know I like to give the readers a little more, so per Wikipedia, this system of getting promoted back to Ozeki after demotion to Sekiwake with 10 wins was implemented in Nagoya 1969, so happy 55th anniversary to that!

Furthermore, I thought I would do some investigating now that I consider myself intermediate in the dark arts of SumoDB queries. Since 1969, 28 wrestlers were at Ozeki and then at Sekiwake the following tournament. Mienoumi was the first to regain his position with 10 wins in Nagoya of 1976. Just a few years later in Nagoya of 1979, Mienoumi successfully had a Yokozuna run and debuted as 57th Yokozuna in Aki ‘79. Big Nagoya theme here which is thematically nice2, and can hopefully inspire Kirishima to regain his spot; ganbatte!

Here are the numbers by the way:

This happened most recently with Takakeisho going 12-3(!) to regain his Ozeki status, which he has retained to this day.

Komosubi 1 East, Daieisho: Natsu Basho 11-4 Jun Yusho

I’m happy to see Daieisho here. Honestly a bit of a theme of this blog is generally speaking I’m rooting for everyone to do well - I know it’s not possible given the zero sum nature of the sport but I’ll keep trying. But with Daieisho in particular he felt like he just wasn’t quite able to get all the wins he needed for the Ozeki promotion when him, now Kirishima, Hoshoryu, Kotozakura and others were all jockeying for Ozeki slots the past couple years. He still is a solid and consistent wrestler, and with 11 wins and a Jun Yusho last tournament, he has a solid launching point for the second tourney of a hopeful Ozeki run.

Maegashira 1 West, Atamifuji

I included the big guy here because he’s still just 21 years old this tournament and is already in the Joi. He went 7-8 last tournament, but I think one of these tournaments he’s going to go 9-6 or 10-5+ and suddenly, he’ll be on an Ozeki run potentially. It’s easy to overlook him with all the other hot prospects coming up and winning Yushos, but I want to give him a shout out as not only a fan, but for facing Ozeki at the same age that Onosato or Takerufuji were facing college wrestlers. Not to take away from them of course, just think of this as an Ozeki preview that extends beyond the next couple of tournaments #justSaying

Here’s looking forward to Nagoya Basho! Thanks for reading.